If statewide lockdowns reduce deaths from COVID-19, then why is New York’s per capita death rate more than 50 times higher than Texas’s?
By Daniel Alman (aka Dan from Squirrel Hill)
April 8, 2020
You can see a list of U.S. states ranked in order by the number of COVID-19 deaths per 1 million population. Go to this link, and scroll down to the list of states. At the top of the list, click where it says “Deaths /1M pop.” Then click on it a second time: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
In addition, here is a map that shows which states have a statewide lockdown, and which do not. Source: https://www.indy100.com/article/coronavirus-lockdown-us-cases-map-stay-home-order-9443151
Looking at these two things, we should be able to see whether nor not statewide lockdowns actually helped to save lives.
New York has a statewide lockdown, and has had 319 deaths per 1 million population.
Texas has not had a statewide lockedown, but its death rate has only been 6 per 1 million people.
So even though New York has a statewide lockdown, and Texas does not, New York’s per capita death rate is actually more than 50 times higher than Texas’s.
What is the explanation for this?
Note: Edited to add the following: People are commenting about differences in population density. My response to this is to point out that of the 13 most heavily populated U.S. cities, five of them are in Texas. Source for image: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_United_States_cities_by_population&oldid=949701887
List of United States cities by population
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gregdougall replied:
I am from NY and live in the County that had the first break out. It was a synagogue in New Rochelle where 60 people all came down with cases. The National Guard was sent there shortly after to test people and set up a small lockdown area. I think it has to do with the NYC public transportation and buses. NY was VERY late to do a lockdown or stay at home order. Millions of people used the subway system before then. This article from March 5th says the bat mitzvah was two weekends ago, or around February 22nd. The NYC stay at home order didn’t go into effect until March 22nd. That’s ONE ENTIRE MONTH!
April 8, 2020 at 5:15 pm. Permalink.
danfromsquirrelhill replied:
That makes a lot of sense – especially regarding the mass transit.
April 8, 2020 at 7:11 pm. Permalink.
gregdougall replied:
https://www.lohud.com/story/news/2020/03/05/coronavirus-new-rochelle-case-stretches-to-aipac-washington/4962585002/
April 8, 2020 at 5:16 pm. Permalink.
danfromsquirrelhill replied:
Wow – that guy really gets around! Thanks for the link.
April 8, 2020 at 7:13 pm. Permalink.
Jon replied:
Are you serious? Perhaps you need to learn about population density and then you can take down this stupid article.
April 8, 2020 at 5:17 pm. Permalink.
danfromsquirrelhill replied:
I edited my post to add info about how Texas is home to 5 of the 13 U.S. cities with the biggest populations.
April 8, 2020 at 7:14 pm. Permalink.
Rational Person replied:
Are the writer of this not familiar with population density? This isn’t being presented as a serious question is it?
April 8, 2020 at 5:37 pm. Permalink.
danfromsquirrelhill replied:
I edited my post to add info about how Texas is home to 5 of the 13 U.S. cities with the biggest populations.
April 8, 2020 at 7:14 pm. Permalink.
bluecat57 replied:
Instead of States look at similarly dense cities. Or find a Red/Blue Chinese virus map. Democrat cities probably have the highest death rates.
April 8, 2020 at 5:52 pm. Permalink.
danfromsquirrelhill replied:
I edited my post to add info about how Texas is home to 5 of the 13 U.S. cities with the biggest populations.
April 8, 2020 at 7:15 pm. Permalink.
bluecat57 replied:
Live free or die. The lockdowns will kill more than the virus.
April 8, 2020 at 5:53 pm. Permalink.
danfromsquirrelhill replied:
That’s certainly a possibility. Higher rates of unemployment have a strong correlation with higher rates of suicide and drug overdoses. Source: https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/30/how-shutting-down-the-economy-much-longer-could-kill-tens-of-thousands-of-americans/
April 8, 2020 at 7:17 pm. Permalink.
jackbenimble333 replied:
Most of the hotspots in the USA and around the world have had large Chinese immigrant populations and a lot of travel between China and the local community. For example there are lots of Chinese working in Italian fabric mills. The virus was widely spread in these places before anybody (except the Chi Coms) new it was a problem.
April 8, 2020 at 8:12 pm. Permalink.
akell2013 replied:
It IS population density! Overlay a map of greater Houston on New York and it reaches into three or four other states!
April 9, 2020 at 11:30 am. Permalink.