Top female scientist canceled over 13-year-old ‘Michael Jackson’ Halloween costume
Top female scientist canceled over 13-year-old ‘Michael Jackson’ Halloween costume
By Jennifer Kabbany
March 7, 2022
‘UW Medicine is helping to ruin a woman who devoted her career to finding a cure for HIV’
Highly decorated virologist Julie Overbaugh has been forced out of a position of leadership at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and resigned her faculty affiliate position at the University of Washington School of Medicine due to accusations of racism and investigations involving her decision to wear a Michael Jackson costume to a Halloween party in 2009.
A picture of the 13-year-old incident, in which she is accused of wearing “blackface,” has prompted peers to accuse her of racism despite the fact that her research has focused on aiding Africans for the last three decades.
“Overbaugh has devoted her professional career to studying viral pathogens that cause HIV. But amid publishing papers, running her own research lab, and flying back and forth from Kenya, she has also pursued another professional passion: mentoring. Overbaugh is one of two recipients of this year’s Nature Award for Mentoring in Science, which is awarded to select scientists in one country or region each year,” a 2016 report in GeekWire reports.
Last year, Overbaugh was elected to National Academy of Sciences.
“I am really happy to see gender balance in this year’s elected members and hope this signals a future trend,” Overbaugh said at the time. “In my field, HIV, which is a very large field, there have only been a couple of women elected — hopefully, there will be more in the future.”
But Overbaugh’s accomplishments during an age in which female STEM recruitment and retainment is a social justice priority apparently could not outweigh the 2009 incident of emulating the King of Pop at a party that was reportedly themed after Jackson’s famous “Thriller” album.
Members of the Overbaugh lab apparently enjoy celebrating Halloween and have posted pictures of its themed parties every year. In past years they have dressed as emojis, bumble bees, fish — and even as “Binders of Babes” — a riff on Republican Mitt Romney’s gaffe while running for president.
The picture from the year 2009 is conspicuously missing from the webpage.
“The act depicted in the photo is racist, offensive and hurtful, and we offer our sincere apologies to anyone who has experienced pain or upset because of the act or this photo,” the cancer center announced in mid-February, adding Overbaugh was put on administrative leave and placed under investigation.
“Dr. Overbaugh has stepped down from her senior vice president role at Fred Hutch. She will continue working in her lab and will take a hiatus from her leadership duties in the Office of Education & Training. During this time, she will engage in an intensive education and reflection process.”
The Federalist reports:
Though the incident didn’t occur at UW Medicine, its CEO and equity officer also waded into the faux controversy. UW Medicine CEO Dr. Paul Ramsey and Chief Equity Officer Paula Houston notified UW Medicine staff in an email that Overbaugh was punished for engaging in the “racist, dehumanizing, and abhorrent act” of “blackface.” During a separate formal review process for UW faculty, the email confirmed, Overbaugh resigned from her UW affiliate faculty member appointment.
Overbaugh released a short statement to me. “I did not know the association of this with blackface at the time, in 2009, but understand the offense that is associated with this now,” she said. “I have apologized for this both publicly and privately and beyond that have no other comments.”
Ramsey and Houston claim that the UW Medicine community was “harmed” by the 13-year-old photo that most staff didn’t know existed until reading about it in the Feb. 25 email. “We acknowledge that our community has been harmed by this incident and the fact that 13 years elapsed before action was taken,” they wrote. “We are convening a series of affinity group meetings in the next few weeks to provide spaces for mutual support, reflection, and response.”
Neither Ramsey nor Houston explained how the photo “harmed” anyone. Indeed, beyond one confirmed complaint, it’s unclear if anyone even cared about the old photo.
The full memo from UW Medicine was republished by journalist Jesse Singal on his Twitter page. The memo notes that Overbaugh resigned her post at the university once administrators began their own probe into the incident.
Her faculty bio is no longer on the UW School of Medicine website, although its Department of Global Health has, as of Monday afternoon, yet to strip her from its webpage.
“A U. Washington doctor who has dedicated her career to fighting HIV in Africa, including research w/sex workers, is having her reputation and career incinerated because she dressed up as Michael Jackson, in blackface, once in 2009,” Singal noted.
https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/1497289911996760064
“Just to situate everyone, the event in question happened several years before the most recent instance of 30 Rock airing blackface-oriented comedy to tens of millions of people. What she did was a bad idea but at the time was obviously not seen as too risque even for network TV,” he added.
Writing for The Federalist, Jason Rantz points out that “UW Medicine is lashing out against Overbaugh to show its wokeness and earn social currency.”
“That UW Medicine is helping to ruin a woman who devoted her career to finding a cure for HIV is immaterial to its leaders. To progressive activists, highlighting one’s virtues is more important than curing a deadly disease.”
Woman gets $688.35 ER bill for spending 7 hours in the waiting room — without being treated
Woman gets $688.35 ER bill for spending 7 hours in the waiting room — without being treated
November 1, 2021
By Nicole Lyn Pesce
The woman says Emory Healthcare told her, ‘You get charged before you are seen. Not for being seen.’
A Georgia woman spent seven hours waiting for emergency room staff to check out her head injury, and left before receiving any treatment. But the real headache began when the hospital billed her almost $700 for the visit a few weeks later.
“I didn’t get my vitals taken, nobody called my name. I wasn’t seen at all,” Taylor Davis told a local Fox affiliate.
She said that she went to Emory Decatur Hospital ER in July for a head injury, and waited as long as she could stand it. “I sat there for seven hours. There’s no way I should be sitting in an emergency room … for seven hours,” she said. So she went home. And was charged $688.35 for the ordeal.
Davis said she called the hospital after receiving the surprise medical bill, because she was convinced it was a mistake. But she says that she was told, “it’s hospital protocol even if you’re just walking in and you’re not seen. When you type in your Social [Security number], that’s it. You’re going to get charged regardless,” she said.
Fox 5 in Atlanta saw a copy of her past due notice for $688.35, as well as an email that she received from an Emory Healthcare patient financial services employee that read, “You get charged before you are seen. Not for being seen.”
Representatives from Emory Healthcare were not immediately available for comment. But Emory Healthcare sent the following statement to Fox 5 in Atlanta: “Emory Healthcare takes all patient concerns seriously and appreciates this has been brought to our attention. Our teams are currently looking into this matter and will follow up directly with the individual.”
Davis said this would probably prevent her from seeking medical attention in the future. “I’m very reluctant to go to the hospital now. That’s kind of like the last resort now. Seeing that they’re able to bill you for random things, it doesn’t make me want to go. So that’s not good,” she said.
The story, which published online over Halloween weekend, was soon the top post on Reddit’s homepage on Monday afternoon, drawing roughly 6,000 comments from people sharing their own surprise medical bill stories.
Indeed, Davis is not alone here. One in five Americans who undergo elective surgery get hit with unexpected out-of-network medical bills, according to a 2020 study of almost 350,000 people. And those suffering sticker shock ended up owing $2,011 more than they were expecting, on average. And nearly one in five families who delivered babies in 2019 may have gotten at least one surprise bill for the delivery and/or newborn hospitalization, with an average bill of $744, another study estimates.
Earlier in the pandemic, men and women getting hit with surprise bills after getting treated for COVID-19 also made headlines. One survivor who spent six weeks in a Seattle ICU ran up a $1.1 million medical tab, although he was quite fortunate in that his insurance paid most of the bill. (If you’re curious, here’s how his $1,122,501.04 bill breaks down.)
But research shows that people making less than $35,000 a year have the most difficulty paying medical, dental or prescription drug bills.
Help could be on the way. Former President Donald Trump signed a federal rule requiring hospitals to publicly list the cost of many of their services in accessible, consumer-friendly language, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2021. This includes X-rays, outpatient visits, imaging and laboratory tests, or bundled services such as a colonoscopy.
And President Joe Biden’s consumer protections against surprise medical bills, which includes being protected from unexpected charges if an out-of-network clinician takes part in a surgery or procedure conducted at an in-network hospital, is on track to take effect on Jan. 1, 2022.
Video: Dr. Rand Paul vs lawyer Xavier Becerra, the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, who does not have a degree in medicine or science, and is a complete idiot when it comes to the subject of natural immunity for people who have been infected with COVID-19
Rand Paul is a medical doctor.
Xavier Becerra is a lawyer who has no degree in medicine or science. Despite this, he is the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services.
In this video, Dr. Paul explains why Becerra is a complete idiot when it comes to the subject of natural immunity for people who have been infected with COVID-19.
Dr. Paul also explains why Becerra is a totalitarian control freak who has no respect for individual freedom.
I think the COVID-19 lockdown is killing more people than it is saving. Here are my many reasons for thinking such a thing. Updated for March 26, 2021.
By Daniel Alman (aka Dan from Squirrel Hill)
March 26, 2021
I think the COVIOD-19 lockdown is killing more people than it is saving.
I’m going to start out by posting the CDC’s estimated survival rates, by age, for people who contract COVID-19:
BBC article on people who regretted getting sex change surgery
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/6923912.stm
Are sex change operations justified?
By Innes Bowen
August 1, 2007
Many people who have been through sex change operations say it was the only solution to a distressing condition. But a leading feminist campaigner claims that sex reassignment surgery is based on unscientific ideas – and could be doing more harm than good.
“I should never have had sex change surgery,” Claudia MacLean, a transsexual woman told the audience at a recent debate organised by the BBC Radio 4 programme Hecklers and the Royal Society of Medicine in London.
“As a result of the surgery, I am incapable of sex and I have lived a life apart.”
Claudia was speaking out in support of Julie Bindel, a radical feminist and journalist, who was trying to persuade medics and trans people that sex change surgery is unnecessary mutilation.
Threatening concept
Radical feminists have ideological reasons for opposing sex change surgery.
To them, the claim that someone can be “born into the wrong sex” is a deeply threatening concept.
Many feminists believe that the behaviours and feelings which are considered typically masculine or typically feminine are purely socially conditioned.
But if, as some in the transsexual lobby believes, the tendency to feel masculine or feminine is something innate then it follows that gender stereotypical behaviours could well be “natural” rather than as the result of social pressures and male oppression.
As a feminist, Julie Bindel therefore has a strong political motivation for her scepticism about sex change surgery.
But, her argument goes beyond ideology.
Having looked into the medical research on transsexualism, she claims there is a lack of science behind the diagnosis, no satisfactory research into the outcomes for patients and individual stories of post-operative regret.
Regret
Claudia says she was referred for surgery after a single 45 minute consultation.
“At no time did I say to that psychiatrist that I felt like a woman. In my opinion what happened to me was all about money.”
She is one of a small number of trans people who have publicly expressed their regrets about having had sex change surgery.
Another is Charles Kane who, as Sam Hashimi, was the subject of a BBC documentary One Life: Make me a Man Again, televised in 2004.
This showed Sam, a transsexual woman, undergoing surgery to become a man again.
She told the BBC that her desire to become a woman had developed following a nervous breakdown.
For her, these feelings were caused by a longing to retreat into a fantasy character rather than having a crisis of gender identity.
“When I was in the psychiatric hospital there was a man on one side of me who thought he was King George and another guy on the other side who thought he was Jesus Christ. I decided I was Sam.”
Others, like Miranda Ponsonby, blame post-operative discontent on society’s lack of willingness to accept transsexual people.
In her forthcoming autobiography, The Making of Miranda, she describes having a strong sense from a young age that she was a female trapped in a man’s body.
However, like Claudia, she says that, since her surgery, she has lived a life apart.
She claims that she is no happier now than she was before the operation.
Her advice to those contemplating sex change surgery is “Don’t do it.”
Stories of satisfaction
Against these stories of disappointment and regret, there are many more people who will testify publicly to their overwhelming satisfaction with sex change surgery.
But are most people who have sex change surgery satisfied or dissatisfied?
It comes as something of a surprise to learn that the medical profession does not yet know the answer to this question.
According to a review carried out by the School of Health and Related Research at Sheffield University, the poor quality of research in this area means that “little robust evidence exists” on the outcomes for patients who have sex change surgery.
Dr Kevan Wylie, a consultant in sexual medicine and the head of the UK body looking into standards of care for sex change surgery patients, admits there have been difficulties.
“The problem is that we tend to lose touch with our patients after a relatively short period of time following surgery.”
Some local health authorities now refuse to fund sex change operations on the basis that there is a lack of evidence about the surgical efficacy and psychological benefits of surgery.
In the absence of more research studies, gender dysphoria specialist Dr Kevan Wylie says it is important to listen to his patients.
However, those contemplating surgery – and the health authorities which fund them – ought also to be able to get advice about the risks versus the potential benefits of such a major operation and, until further research is done, doctors are unable to give them such information.
Best-Selling Controversial Book on Transgender People Removed From Amazon 3 Years After Publication
Best-Selling Controversial Book on Transgender People Removed From Amazon 3 Years After Publication
By Katherine Fung
February 22, 2021
Ryan Anderson’s When Harry Became Sally was removed from Amazon’s cyber shelves Sunday, three years after the controversial best-seller was published on February 20, 2018.
Anderson told Newsweek that he discovered that his book had vanished from Amazon—as well as the company’s e-reader Kindle, podcast service Audible and used-book sellers—when someone looking to buy a copy informed the author. He said that neither he nor his publisher were notified by Amazon.
In 2018, the book hit No. 1 on two of Amazon’s best-seller list before it was even released, but sparked controversy for arguing that society’s growing acceptance of transgender people stems more from ideology than science.
“We need to respect the dignity of people who identify as transgender,” Anderson argued in the book, “but without encouraging children to undergo experimental transition treatments, and without trampling on the needs and interests of others.”
While the book was well-received by conservatives, LGBTQ activists have dismissed the book as anti-trans and “dangerous.”
“People who have actually read my book discovered that it was a thoughtful and accessible presentation of the state of the scientific, medical, philosophical and legal debates,” Anderson told Newsweek. “Yes, it advances an argument from a certain viewpoint. No, it didn’t get any facts wrong, and it didn’t engage in any name-calling.”
He argues that the book’s research is more important than ever before given the recent push for trans policies from the new Biden administration.
“Three years after publication, in the very same week that the House of Representatives is going to ram through a radical transgender bill amending the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Amazon erases my book opposing gender ideology from their cyber shelves,” Anderson wrote to Newsweek. “Make no mistake, both Big Government and Big Tech can undermine human dignity and liberty, human flourishing and the common good.”
On his first day in office, President Joe Biden undid a host of Trump-era policies and issued a sweeping executive order, protecting gay and transgender people from discrimination in schools, the workplace, health care among other facets of daily life.
“Children should be able to learn without worrying about whether they will be denied access to the restroom, the locker room, or school sports,” Biden’s executive order stated. “Adults should be able to earn a living and pursue a vocation knowing that they will not be fired, demoted, or mistreated because of whom they go home to or because how they dress does not conform to sex-based stereotypes. People should be able to access health care and secure a roof over their heads without being subjected to sex discrimination.”
Days later, Biden also reversed former President Donald Trump’s ban on transgender individuals serving in the U.S. military.
The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the Equality Act this week after Democratic Representative David Cicilline of Rhode Island reintroduced the LGBTQ rights bill last week.
The Equality Act would prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity in employment, housing, credit, education, public spaces, public funding and jury service.
While it passed the House in 2019 after eight GOP lawmakers broke party ranks in a historic vote, the bill was stalled in the then-Republican-controlled Senate. But sponsors of the bill are hopeful that it could pass now that the Senate is split 50–50.
Anderson said that although his book has been praised by a number of psychology experts “none of that matters. It’s not about how you say it, it’s not about how rigorously you argue it, it’s not about how charitably you present it. It’s about whether you dissent from a new orthodoxy.”
He said his publisher has since contacted Amazon to inquire about the grounds for removal but has not received a response.
Amazon also declined Newsweek’s request for comment, although a spokesperson referred to the company’s content guidelines, which removes books that include illegal or infringing content, offensive content, poor customer experience or public domain content.
“We don’t sell certain content including content that we determine is hate speech, promotes the abuse or sexual exploitation of children, contains pornography, glorifies rape or pedophilia, advocates terrorism, or other material we deem inappropriate or offensive,” Amazon’s guidelines read.
However, it remains unclear as to why Anderson’s book has been removed by the online retailer.
Dr. Rand Paul asks Dr. Rachel Levine whether she supports or opposes letting people under the age of 18 get transgender surgery and hormone treatment without their parents’ permission. Dr. Levine refuses to answer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y4ZhQUre-4
Democrats used to be in favor of universal education and universal employment. But now with “cancel culture,” Democrats are against those things. And I’m guessing that it’s only a matter of time until Democrats start being against the universal health care that they currently claim to support.
By Daniel Alman (aka Dan from Squirrel Hill)
January 31, 2021
Until recently, Democrats were in favor of universal education and universal employment.
However, with the current movement known as “cancel culture,” Democrats are now against both of those things.
After a high school student named Mimi Groves was accepted to the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, a public university which was her #1 choice for college, the college later asked her not to attend, because one of her high school classmates named Jimmy Galligan sent the college a video of a private Snapchat conversation from three years earlier, where Groves had said to her friends, “I can drive [racial slur].”
The New York Times praised Galligan for sending the video to the college.
Public colleges used to be about universal education. That is clearly no longer the case.
A data analyst named David Shor was fired from his job at Civis Analytics because he tweeted a link to a study by a Princeton professor which said that peaceful protesting was more effective than violent rioting.
Democrats used to say they supported universal education and universal employment.
However, the two above examples prove that Democrats are now against universal education and universal employment.
Democrats also say they support universal health care.
But based on those two above examples, I’m guessing that it’s only a matter of time until Democrats start being against universal health care too.
I think the COVID-19 lockdown is killing more people than it is saving. Here are my many reasons for thinking such a thing.
By Daniel Alman (aka Dan from Squirrel Hill)
September 24, 2020
I think the COVIOD-19 lockdown is killing more people than it is saving.
I’m going to start out by posting the CDC’s estimated survival rates, by age, for people who contract COVID-19:
0 to 19: 99.997%
20 to 49: 99.98%
50 to 69: 99.5%
70+: 94.6%
For most age groups, the survival rate is quite high. In my opinion, this does not justify a lockdown of the general population.
Now let’s take a look at my many reasons for thinking that the lockdown is killing more people than it is saving:
The National Cancer Institute estimates that there could be 10,000 additional breast and colorectal deaths over the next decade as a result of missed screenings and delayed diagnoses
Source: https://www.wjhg.com/2020/09/08/cancer-screenings-down-nationwide-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Cancer surgeries and organ transplants are being put off for coronavirus
Higher rates of unemployment correlate very strongly with higher rates of suicide and drug overdoses
A report by the United Nations cites the predicted harm that will happen to tens of millions of children in low income countries as a result of the COVID-19 global wide shutdown.
Examples of this harm to children include increases in malnutrition, loss of education, increased rates of teen pregnancy, reduced access to health care, reduced rates of vaccination, increased rates of infectious disease, increased rates of water borne illness, and increased rates of death:
Source: https://unsdg.un.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/160420_Covid_Children_Policy_Brief.pdf
Anxiety from reactions to Covid-19 will destroy at least seven times more years of life than can be saved by lockdowns
Source: https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_anxiety_lockdowns_life_destroyed_saved
Childhood vaccine rates for preventable diseases like measles and whooping cough have fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the possibility of an additional health crisis.
In New York City… the number of vaccine doses administered from March 23 to May 9 fell 63 percent compared with the same period last year.
In children older than 2 years, it fell 91 percent…
… Doctors offices have been closed…
… The numbers in New York match a national trend…
… from mid-March to mid-April, doctors in the federally funded Vaccines for Children program for the uninsured ordered about 2.5 million fewer doses of all routine non-influenza vaccines and 250,000 fewer doses of measles-containing vaccines compared to the same period in 2019…
Polio and measles could surge after disruption of vaccine programs. A new study of 129 countries found that the interruption of inoculation efforts could put 80 million babies at risk of getting deadly, preventable diseases.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/health/coronavirus-polio-measles-immunizations.html
Why most Covid-19 deaths won’t be from the virus
Source: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200528-why-most-covid-19-deaths-wont-be-from-the-virus
The global lockdown was put into place based on the bogus, false, and extremely inaccurate Imperial College model.
Sweden did not have a lockdown.
Experts, who cited the Imperial College model, predicted that Sweden would have 40,000 COVID-19 deaths by May 1.
The actual number was 2,769.
The same bogus Imperial College model was used to implement the lockdowns for the rest of the world.
Sources: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/sweden-suppressed-infection-rates-without-lockdown/
https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/
Nobel Prize-winning scientist: “the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor”
This is a scientific paper called “Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.”
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1.full.pdf
Do lockdowns save many lives? In most places, the data say no.
U.S. medical testing, cancer screenings plunge during coronavirus outbreak – data firm analysis
Some medical experts fear more people are dying from untreated emergencies than from the coronavirus
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/health/coronavirus-heart-stroke.html
How the COVID-19 lockdown will take its own toll on health
A study of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in New York showed that 66% of them were people who stayed home
End all restrictions, they were unnecessary, Hebrew University researchers say
A scientific paper states:
Background: The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has forced governments to implement strict social mitigation strategies to reduce the morbidity and mortality from acute infections. These strategies however carry a significant risk for mental health which can lead to increased short-term and long-term mortality and is currently not included in modelling the impact of the pandemic. Methods: We used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure as applied to Switzerland as an exemplar. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status and social isolation as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We stipulated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans. Results: The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer an average 9.79 YLL. Conclusions: The results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, they highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069716v3
In the U.S., the lockdown caused 1.4 million health care workers to be laid off:
Take the Shutdown Skeptics Seriously
Americans should carefully consider the potential costs of prolonged shutdowns lest they cause more deaths or harm to the vulnerable than they spare…
… minimizing the number of COVID-19 deaths today or a month from now or six months from now may or may not minimize the human costs of the pandemic when the full spectrum of human consequences is considered…
… the warnings of thoughtful shutdown skeptics warrant careful study…
Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/take-shutdown-skeptics-seriously/611419/
Cyril H. Wecht, one of the country’s most well regarded doctors, made this excellent argument against the lockdown
Stanford University doctor: ‘You are mistaken’ if you think coronavirus lockdowns provide safety”
Source: https://www.theblaze.com/news/stanford-university-doctor-mistaken-coronavirus-lockdowns
Relapses are through the roof, overdoses are through the roof: How the pandemic is upping substance abuse
… They can’t go to a 12-step based meeting…
… People are self-medicating due to the quarantine. And they’re drinking more, and abusing more, and relapses are through the roof right now.
Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model “could go down in history as the most devastating software mistake of all time, in terms of economic costs and lives lost”
Rise in female genital mutilation in Somalia linked to coronavirus shutdown
Somali girls out of school and stuck at home have been subject to a “massive rise” in female genital mutilation…
“It’s a lifetime torture for girls. The pain continues … until the girl goes to the grave. It impacts her education, ambition … everything.”
… the UNFPA has warned that globally 2 million more girls could be cut over the next decade because of how the global pandemic has disrupted efforts to end the practice.
More than 500 doctors signed this letter, which is says, “In medical terms, the shutdown was a mass casualty incident.”
Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/462319362/A-Doctor-a-Day-Letter-Signed#fullscreen&from_embed
Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, head of the trauma department at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, California, said, “… we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks…”
Source: https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/
Rampant unemployment, isolation and an uncertain future – could lead to 75,000 deaths from drug or alcohol abuse and suicide
Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/
In the U.S., the first nine weeks of the lockdown caused 38 million people to lose their jobs
The fatality rate of COVID-19 “would probably be 0.13 percent for people outside nursing homes”
A scientific study said, “Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%)”
Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf
New England Journal of Medicine: “We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection”
Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372
Knut Wittkowski, former head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science, said the lockdown “most likely made the situation worse”
Source: https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/
Denmark, Finland say they saw no increase in coronavirus after schools re-opened
Kanchan Soni, who lived in India, died because the lockdown prevented her from getting dialysis
Chewing gum, wire-cutters, and superglue: the alarming rise of DIY Dentistry under coronavirus
A scientific paper on the lockdown states, “In high burden settings, HIV, TB and malaria related deaths over 5 years may be increased by up to 10%, 20% and 36%, respectively”
Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-01-COVID19-Report-19.pdf
Polio and measles could surge after disruption of vaccine programs. A new study of 129 countries found that the interruption of inoculation efforts could put 80 million babies at risk of getting deadly, preventable diseases.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/health/coronavirus-polio-measles-immunizations.html
World Health Organization: “If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19”
Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-offer-conflicting-advice-masks-expert-tells-us/story?id=70958380
Reopening schools in Denmark did not worsen outbreak, data shows
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening-idUSKBN2341N7
One month later: top Israeli mathematician predicted COVID-19 peaks after 40 days with or without economic lockdowns – and he was right!
Dr. Kelly Fradin: “I’m a pediatrician and I think we should reopen schools, even with the risk of coronavirus outbreaks”
Source: https://www.insider.com/pediatrician-reopen-schools-even-if-it-leads-coronavirus-outbreaks-2020-6
This video shows Dr. Anthony Fauci removing his mask when he thought he was no longer being filmed
https://twitter.com/CHIZMAGA/status/1278029614070153217
Slowing the coronavirus is speeding the spread of other diseases. Many mass immunization efforts worldwide were halted this spring to prevent spread of the virus at crowded inoculation sites. The consequences have been alarming… cargo flights with vaccine supplies were halted… Now, diphtheria is appearing in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Cholera is in South Sudan, Cameroon, Mozambique, Yemen and Bangladesh. A mutated strain of poliovirus has been reported in more than 30 countries. And measles is flaring around the globe, including in Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Nigeria and Uzbekistan.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-measles.html
Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid
Source: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid
Antibody tests point to lower death rate for the coronavirus than first thought
Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.
Coronavirus pandemic could push 122 million to brink of starvation: Oxfam
Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/7155931/coronavirus-starvation-oxfam/
Dr. Dan Wohlgelernter said, “What we needed to do was not lock down all of society. Not shut down schools. Not shut down all businesses. You needed to protect the elderly. Particularly the elderly in the nursing homes. It’s a small segment of our population. We could have allowed the rest of the population to continue with their lives, take adequate precautions but not be completely shut down. The cost of the shut down in terms of the physical, emotional, and psychological health of people is enormous. We’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg of people who have been shut-in. Who’ve lost their businesses. Who are facing depression. Who are facing issues of mental health because of the consequences. This should never happen again. If we ever face this situation again we need to learn the lessons from the mistakes and policies that were implemented.”
People are more likely to contract COVID-19 at home, study finds
Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-more-likely-contract-covid-122611396.html
No known case of teacher catching coronavirus from pupils, says scientist. There has been no recorded case of a teacher catching the coronavirus from a pupil anywhere in the world, according to one of the government’s leading scientific advisers. Mark Woolhouse, a leading epidemiologist and member of the government’s Sage committee, told The Times that it may have been a mistake to close schools in March given the limited role children play in spreading the virus.
Coronavirus lockdown ‘made no difference to number of deaths’, study claims
Source: https://www.the-sun.com/news/1190721/coronavirus-lockdown-no-difference/
Stop stealing our children’s youth in the name of their grandparents. Every person I know in his 70s says kids should go back to school. Behind ensuring Americans have food, ensuring our children are well educated is a very close second in societal priorities.
Citing educational risks, scientific panel urges that schools reopen
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/health/coronavirus-schools-reopening.html
Stanford doctor Scott Atlas says the science shows kids should go back to school
German study finds no evidence coronavirus spreads in schools
As of September 2020, Sweden, which never had a lockdown, or a mask mandate, had a lower total, cumulative per capita COVID-19 death rate than the U.S.
Sources: https://web.archive.org/web/20200907000001/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://fortune.com/2020/07/29/no-point-in-wearing-mask-sweden-covid/
https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/
Now this last one is just speculation, as I do not have proof. But I do think it is worth mentioning.
At least since March 2020, and perhaps even earlier, Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, from New York, has been claiming to have successfully treated COVID-19 patients with a triple combination of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin.
Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment is different than other treatments (which have been debunked) because of these two things:
First, Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment involves a triple combination of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin.
And secondly, Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment must be given before the patient has become so sick that they need hospitalization.
Other treatments with hydroxychloroquine have been debunked. But those other treatments do not meet the two above criteria.
I don’t know if Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment actually works or not. But I have not seen it debunked.
On July 3, 2020, preprints.org reported the following on Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment:
COVID-19 Outpatients – Early Risk-Stratified Treatment with Zinc Plus Low Dose Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin: A Retrospective Case Series Study
Of 335 positively PCR-tested COVID-19 patients, 127 were treated with the triple therapy. 104 of 127 met the defined risk stratification criteria and were included in the analysis. In addition, 37 treated and eligible patients who were confirmed by IgG tests were included in the treatment group (total N=141). 208 of the 335 patients did not meet the risk stratification criteria and were not treated. After 4 days (median, IQR 3-6, available for N=66/141) of onset of symptoms, 141 patients (median age 58 years, IQR 40-60; 73% male) got a prescription for the triple therapy for 5 days. Independent public reference data from 377 confirmed COVID-19 patients of the same community were used as untreated control. 4 of 141 treated patients (2.8%) were hospitalized, which was significantly less (p<0.001) compared with 58 of 377 untreated patients (15.4%) (odds ratio 0.16, 95% CI 0.06-0.5). Therefore, the odds of hospitalization of treated patients were 84% less than in the untreated group. One patient (0.7%) died in the treatment group versus 13 patients (3.5%) in the untreated group (odds ratio 0.2, 95% CI 0.03-1.5; p=0.16). There were no cardiac side effects. Conclusions: Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset with the used triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly less hospitalizations and 5 times less all-cause deaths.
Source: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1
Risk of coronavirus spreading in schools is ‘extremely low’ study finds
This is good news for children and everyone who cares about them.
But it’s horrible news for the totalitarian control freaks who want to keep everything locked down for as long as possible.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/risk-coronavirus-spreading-schools-extremely-194143983.html
Risk of coronavirus spreading in schools is ‘extremely low’ study finds
By Hayley Dixon
The Telegraph
May 17, 2020
Coronavirus does not spread widely in schools, according to a major study which is being considered by Government advisers.
The research looked at 18 infected teachers and students in 15 schools, and found that despite them coming into contact with 863 people at the schools, only two were infected.
It is the only major study of transmission among children and teachers, and shows that the spread of the virus is “limited” in classrooms. Previous studies have suggested that younger children are likely to only contract a mild form of coronavirus and do not play a major role in the spread of the disease, but this is the first time the spread of Covid-19 has been directly studied in primary and secondary schools.
It comes as the government is locked in a battle with teaching unions over plans for primary school children in reception, years 1 and 6 in England to return from June 1. Union bosses have insisted classrooms will not be safe and have ordered their members not to “engage” with the plans, while some Labour councils have also said that they will refuse to reopen schools.
On Sunday, Michael Gove sought to reassure worried teachers and parents, insisting that the “clear scientific and clinical advice” was that it was safe for school to reopen providing social distancing is enforced
“Children only have one chance at education. Over the last decade we have made significant strides in closing the gap between the richest and poorest in our schools. This lockdown has put that at risk,” the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster told the Andrew Marr Show. “If progressive countries like Denmark can be teaching children and have them back in schools, then so should we. The whole point about being a teacher is you love your job. It is a mission, a vocation, to be able to excite young minds.”
Dr Soumya Swaminathan, the World Health Organisation’s Chief Scientist, also said on Sunday that “there have not been big outbreaks in schools” and the early results of studies are “very reassuring”. She said that “the risks to children are extremely low with this infection, and there have not been many cases described of children transmitting it to others, particularly within school settings”. Dr Swaminathan added that from what is currently known, it appears that “children are less capable of spreading it, even if they get the infection and certainly are at very low risk of getting ill from the disease”.
The latest study, which was carried out in Australia, is now being considered by government advisers as they consider how to get children back into classrooms safely.
Speaking to The Telegraph yesterday, a senior member of the Sage sub-committee on schools, known as the Children’s Task and Finish Working Group, confirmed that the Australian study had been looked at by the Government’s scientific advisers. The source described it as a “very useful and interesting piece of research”. The Telegraph also understands that Sage – the government’s scientific advisory group – is preparing to publish its own evidence in the coming days which will set out the thinking behind recommending that schools reopen gradually.
The study examined by the government advisers was conducted by Australia’s National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance. It was cited by the country’s officials when they announced that children should return to the classroom and found schools had a “very limited” role in transmission of the virus.
The scientists found that across 15 schools in New South Wales, ten secondary and five primary, 18 people – nine teachers and nine students – had confirmed coronavirus.
Of the 735 students and 128 staff who were in close contact with the virus carriers, only one secondary school pupil caught it from another student and one primary school pupil caught it from a teacher.
It is believed to be the only study to look at transmission in primary schools, as the swift and unprecedented closure of classrooms across the world has meant that there have been limited research opportunities. They authors said their findings “do suggest that spread of Covid-19 within NSW schools has been very limited” and transmission “appears considerably less than seen for other respiratory viruses, such as influenza”.
They concluded that the data “suggest that children are not the primary drivers of Covid-19 spread in schools or in the community. This is consistent with data from international studies showing low rates of disease in children and suggesting limited spread among children and from children to adults.”
While Australia has a hotter climate than Europe, which some scientists believe may play a part in lower levels of infection, the findings have been backed by early data from countries such as Denmark and Norway which shows that the re-opening of schools has not led to a spike in the disease.
Video: This nurse from Nevada went to New York to treat COVID-19 patients. She said they are dying due to the incompetence, negligence, and indifference of health care workers. She even says that some of these deaths were murder. When she told management, they didn’t care.
I watched this entire 24 minute video. The speaker is a nurse from Nevada named Nicole Sirotek, who went to New York to treat COVID-19 patients. She describes multiple examples of patients who died due to the incompetence, negligence, and indifference of health care workers. She even says that some of these deaths were murder. When she told management, they didn’t care.
I don’t know if she’s telling the truth or not. I hope an independent investigation by outside parties will be conducted, including autopsies, to find out if she is telling the truth or not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGTOGZIgkR8
Early Antibody Testing Indicates Far More COVID-19 Cases, Lower Mortality Rate
Early Antibody Testing Indicates Far More COVID-19 Cases, Lower Mortality Rate
Although there is a decrease in the number of deaths, the study indicates that there could be hundreds of thousands of people who could be infected without knowing it.
April 20, 2020
Although there is a decrease in the number of deaths, the study indicates that there could be hundreds of thousands of people who could be infected without knowing it.
Preliminary results from an antibody testing program indicates the number of COVID-19 infections in Los Angeles County far exceeds the number of confirmed cases, with potentially more than 400,000 residents having been infected at some point, USC researchers and county health officials announced Monday.
The good news from the antibody study, researchers said, is that the mortality rate from the illness is much lower than currently estimated. The bad news is that there are potentially hundreds of thousands of residents who are unknowingly infected with the illness and not showing any symptoms, but are still capable of spreading it to others.
The numbers prove that “we are very early in the epidemic,” said USC professor Neeraj Sood of the USC Price School for Public Policy.
County public health director Barbara Ferrer said the figures also show that with thousands of residents likely infected and capable to transmitting the virus, social-distancing requirements need to remain in place.
As of Monday, the number of COVID-19 cases confirmed by testing stood at 13,816 — a fraction of the maximum estimate of 442,000 cases indicated by the antibody study. Researchers are testing for antibodies in adults over time in an effort to determine the scope and spread of the coronavirus pandemic across the county. The testing began in early April with a representative sample of 863 residents.
A rapid antibody test was used for the study, which was conducted at six drive-through test sites. The researchers plan to test new groups of participants every few weeks to gauge the pandemic’s trajectory.
Based on the first round of testing, the research team estimated that roughly 4.1% of the county’s adult population has developed antibodies to the virus — an indication they are or were infected at some point. Adjusting for the statistical margin of error implies that approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.
That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. “We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited,” Sood, the lead investigator on the study, said. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”
The results have important implications for public health efforts to control the local epidemic.
“These results indicate that many persons may have been unknowingly infected and at risk of transmitting the virus to others,” Ferrer said. “These findings underscore the importance of expanded polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing to diagnose those with infection so they can be isolated and quarantined, while also maintaining the broad social distancing interventions.”
The antibody test is helpful for identifying past infection, but a PCR test is required to diagnose current infection.
More than 600 people have died of the virus countywide. “Though the results indicate a lower risk of death among those with infection than was previously thought, the number of COVID-related deaths each day continues to mount, highlighting the need for continued vigorous prevention and control efforts,” said Dr. Paul Simon, chief science officer at L.A.
County Department of Public Health, who co-led the study.
The study’s results have not yet been peer reviewed by other scientists. The test’s accuracy was assessed at a lab at Stanford University, using blood samples that were positive and negative for COVID-19.
The study was supported with funding from the USC Schwarzenegger Institute, USC Lusk Center, USC President’s Office, Jedel Foundation, LRW Group, Soap Box Sample, and several individual donors.
Way more people may have gotten coronavirus than we thought, small antibody study suggests
This is good news. A much higher infection rate means that the fatality rate is that much lower:
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-antibodies-widespread-in-santa-clara.html
Way more people may have gotten coronavirus than we thought, small antibody study suggests
Between 50 and 85 times as many people in Santa Clara County have coronavirus antibodies as have tested positive for the virus.
April 18, 2020
Way more people may have gotten coronavirus than we are detecting.
That’s the takeaway from a small study of coronavirus antibodies in more than 3,000 people in Santa Clara County, California. The results suggested that between 2.5% and 4.2% of people in the county have contracted COVID-19, which is 50 to 85 times greater than the number of cases being reported at the time. Not everyone is convinced the true prevalence is that high, however, with some saying the antibody test the researchers used was not reliable.
However, this type of antibody testing, or serologic study, should be rolled out more broadly, epidemiologists told Live Science.
“I think this is a great start to beginning a serologic survey in the U.S., and I agree that we should expand this testing as much as possible so that hopefully we can figure out what level of antibodies, if any, is necessary to maintain immunity,” said Krys Johnson, an epidemiologist at Temple University in Philadelphia.
So what does this mean for how deadly the virus is, how widely it has spread, and when we can ease social distancing? The answers aren’t straightforward, epidemiologists told Live Science.
The results
First, the study: Stanford University researchers used Facebook ads to find volunteers to be tested for antibodies to the novel coronavirus, or proteins produced by a person’s immune system to fight off a specific virus that has invaded the body. Roughly 3,300 of those volunteers came to a drive-through testing site on April 3 and April 4. One in every 66 tested positive for antibodies to the novel coronavirus. White women and affluent people were overrepresented in the population, while Latinos and Asians were underrepresented compared with Santa Clara’s overall population.
A total of 50 tests came back positive. After adjusting for differences in zip code, race and sex between the sample population and Santa Clara as a whole, the researchers estimated that between 48,000 and 81,000 people in the 2-million-strong county had contracted coronavirus at some point. At the time, the health department was reporting about 1,000 positive cases.
The findings were posted Friday (April 17) to the preprint database medrXiv; they have not gone through peer review.
Less deadly than thought?
Using their data, the team estimated that the true “infection fatality rate” of coronavirus — or the number of infected people who die from the disease — is between 0.12% and 0.2%, or between 20% and two times more deadly than seasonal influenza (which kills about 0.1% of people it infects, on average). Other studies have estimated infection fatality rates between 0.5% and 0.9%, Nature news reported.
Some experts have questioned the results, saying that when few people in a population have the virus, even a few false positives on the test could create the impression that there are many more coronavirus cases than actually exist, according to Nature.
The test used in this study has not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) yet.
“They are constrained by the fact that the antibody tests they used were not very good, which they had to try and adjust for” who were infected, said George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF).
“The market’s been flooded with these tests.” Rutherford told Live Science. “But the FDA has relaxed its rules so there’s not the same degree of quality control.”
The crude rate of positives they found before making adjustments — about 1.5% — is probably about right, Rutherford said. However, using statistical adjustments to arrive at the range of 2.5% to 4.2%, and then to infer fatality rates, was likely a stretch, he added.
“The interpretation of the ratio of cases to death is an over-interpretation,” Rutherford told Live Science. ”
What’s more, because they didn’t take a random sample, the study is subject to what’s called selection bias, Rutherford said.
“They may have picked off a piece of the population that was more likely to be infected or less likely to be infected, we just don’t know,” Rutherford said. (An example of potential selection bias: if someone suspected they had been infected earlier, but couldn’t be tested when symptomatic, they might be more motivated to pursue antibody testing.)
Johnson, meanwhile, thinks the true prevalence in Santa Clara could be even higher.
“I think if they’d had an ethnically representative sample in this study as they’d hoped, they may have found an even higher proportion of people with antibodies, based on current reports that minorities are disproportionately affected by COVID-19,” Johnson told Live Science in an email. “This would mean that even the informative conclusions here are still a conservative estimate of the likely number of infected people in Santa Clara County and throughout the U.S.”
But on the other hand, the infection fatality rate in Santa Clara can’t be directly translated to other spots in the U.S., which face higher rates of obesity and other chronic conditions known to worsen the outcomes of COVID-19. So infection fatality rates in other American cities may be higher than the Santa Clara County estimate, Johnson said.
Ultimately, it’s just one sample in a single locale, said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious diseases specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.
Schaffner suspects the 50 to 85 times higher prevalence “is on the high side” — meaning the true infection fatality rate could potentially be higher. But without doing antibody testing in several other places and populations, there is no way to know for sure, Schaffner told Live Science.
Mild disease and catastrophic impacts
If the numbers are in fact representative, though, how can this relatively low fatality rate be reconciled with the catastrophes that have unfolded around the world? How can a disease that’s only slightly more deadly than the flu have caused China to shut down its economy for two months, brought the country’s largest city to the brink of collapse, and kept 1.5 billion children out of school?
It turns out, that’s definitely possible, because before late last year, no one on Earth had been exposed to this virus, so everyone could catch it. By contrast, many people will be immune to viruses that have circulated before, and only a fraction of the population is susceptible to catching those. Even if the novel coronavirus virus is not that deadly, it could kill many more people than a known, but similarly deadly bug simply because it has the potential to infect a greater proportion of the population. That can easily overwhelm the health care system, Schaffner said.
The flip side of this data is that nowhere in the U.S. is likely to have most of its population exposed to SARS-CoV-2 at this point, Schaffner told Live Science. So the idea of us being close to “herd immunity” — when enough people have gotten the virus and are immune that the disease can no longer spread — is wishful thinking.
In Santa Clara, at least 95% of the population is still susceptible to the virus, Schaffner said. “So we can’t depend on any kind of herd immunity to slow down this virus yet.”
Extrapolating data from one locale to another is always statistically dicey, but even in New York City — where reported deaths from COVID-19 already exceed 0.1% of the city’s population — some other numbers suggest that about 15% of the population has been infected. That’s well below what’s needed to naturally slow the spread of coronavirus, Johnson said.
That said, the numbers do suggest caution before mandating social distancing too far out into the future based on epidemiological models, especially without taking into account practical factors, such as the societal costs of social distancing, Schaffner said. (Some health experts have suggested some form of social distancing may linger into 2022, unless a vaccine becomes available sooner.)
“Social distancing, into the fall and winter, I think is reasonable, and then let’s see,” Schaffner said.
United Nations on COVID-19 shutdown: “…mitigation measures that may inadvertently do more harm than good… An estimated 42-66 million children could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis this year… could result in hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths in 2020”
On April 15, 2020, the United Nations published this 17 page report, which is titled: Policy Brief: The Impact of COVID-19 on children.
The report cites the predicted harm that will happen to children in low income countries as a result of the COVID-19 global wide shutdown. Examples of this harm to children include increases in malnutrition, loss of education, increased rates of teen pregnancy, reduced access to health care, reduced rates of vaccination, increased rates of infectious disease, increased rates of water borne illness, and increased rates of death.
The report goes on to explain that some of these negative consequences could have very severe, permanent effects on children.
Page 2 refers to: (all of the bolding in this blog post is mine)
...mitigation measures that may inadvertently do more harm than good…
and goes on to say:
…An estimated 42-66 million children could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis this year…
The transition from page 2 to page 3 states:
Economic hardship experienced by families as a result of the global economic downturn could result in hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths in 2020, reversing the last 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality within a single year. And this alarming figure does not even take into account services disrupted due to the cri-sis – it only reflects the current relationship between economies and mortality, so is likely an under-estimate of the impact. Rising malnutririon is expected as 368.5 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition must now look to other sources. The risks to child mental health and well being are also considerable. Refugee and internally displaced children as well as those living in detention and situations of active conflict are especially vulnerable.
Page 4 states:
As health services become overwhelmed in car-ing for large numbers of infected patients requir-ing treatment, children and pregnant women are less able to access standard care. Children of frontline workers have also had to adapt to alternative childcare arrangements. Children living in areas of armed conflict, who already struggle extensively to access health services may be further excluded from attention and access to the severely stretched health systems. Physical distancing and lockdown measures, restrictions of movement and border closures, and surveillance strategies are all affecting chil-dren in myriad ways. Face-to-face child services – schooling, nutrition programmes, maternal and newborn care, immunization services, sexual and reproductive health services, HIV treatment, alternative care facilities, community-based child protection programmes, and case management for children requiring supplementary personal-ized care, including those living with disabilities, and abuse victims – have often been partially or completely suspended.
Page 4 ends with this:
While children are not the face of this pandemic, its broader impacts on children risk being catastrophic and amongst the most lasting consequences for societies as a whole.
Page 6 states:
The physical distancing and lockdown measures needed to save lives and supress the transmis-sion of the virus have resulted in a significant reduction of economic activity across all major economies and the resultant global recession…
… At a household level, the collapse in income threatens the livelihoods of millions of house-holds with children around the world. Inputting the forecasts from the IMF optimistic scenario into an IFPRI poverty model4 indicates an increase in extreme poverty (PPP$1.90 a day) this year of 84 to 132 million people, approx-imately half of whom are children, compared to a pre-pandemic counterfactual scenario.
Page 7 states:
The worldwide closure of schools has no his-torical precedent…
… The potential losses that may accrue in learn-ing for today’s young generation, and for the development of their human capital, are hard to fathom…
Page 8 states:
Those losses will be greatest for children who, triggered by the pandemic, drop out of school altogether. That possibility becomes greater the longer schools are closed and the deeper the economic contraction wrought by the pan-demic. Experience with HIV in Kenya shows that those children who lose a parent face reduced odds of returning to school. In situations of continuing conflict, children no longer in school may be incentivized to join armed forces or groups, thus perpetuating the cycle of violence.
Page 9 states:
Reduced household income will force poor families to cut back on essential health and food expenditures. Drawing again on the forecast for global eco-nomic growth from the IMF and the historical relationship between GDP growth and infant mortality in the developing world15 , hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths could occur in 2020 compared to a pre-pandemic counterfactual scenario. This would effectively reverse the last 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality within a single year.
These estimates focus only on the effects of this year’s global recession on child health and do not account for the multiple ways in which health services are being directly disrupted by the pandemic. This includes reduced access to essential reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health interventions, such as ante-natal care, skilled attendance at birth, and treatment for pneumonia. It also includes the suspension of all polio vaccination campaigns worldwide, setting back the decades-long effort to eliminate the wild virus from its last two ves-tiges, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to tackle recent outbreaks of the vaccine-derived virus in Africa, East Asia and the Pacific. In addition, measles immunization campaigns have been suspended in at least 23 countries that had cumulatively targeted more than 78 million children up to the age of 9. Meanwhile, chil-dren and adolescents with chronic illnesses, including those living with HIV, are at risk of reduced access to medicines and care.
Child nutrition is a vital concern. 368.5 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition must now look to other sources. That challenge is made greater by the economic shock facing households, which will negatively affect the diets of children, pregnant women, and breastfeeding mothers. Additionally, hastily implemented lockdown measures risk disrupting food supply chains and local food markets…
Should schools remain closed and cause girls to drop out, we should also anticipate an increase in teenage pregnancy in the year ahead. A recent meta-analysis of the prevalence and determinants of adolescent pregnancy in Africa found that adolescent girls out of school are more than two times more likely to start childbearing than those who are in school.
Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) ser-vices are also at risk of disruption by lockdown measures, posing further threats to children’s health through water-borne diseases. Over 700 children under five die every day from diarrheal diseases related to inadequate WASH services, and this number could rise sharply if existing services collapse….
Page 12 states:
The ultimate impact of the crisis on chil-dren hinges on how much time it will take for the pandemic to end. A longer struggle to contain the virus not only prolongs the pain caused by the pandemic, but raises the pros-pect that the pandemic’s impact will have lingering or persistent effects on children.
For instance, the longer economies are on shutdown, the less likely they are to “snap back”. At the household level, struggling families will increasingly see breadwinners lose their jobs or be forced to sell productive assets in order to survive, with long-running consequences for child poverty. The same holds true for other impacts of the pandemic. The longer schools remain closed, the less likely children are to catch up on learning and essential life skills that support a healthy tran-sition to adulthood. The longer immunization campaigns are suspended, the greater and more costly will be the struggle to eliminate polio and to manage measles outbreaks.
For children caught at the apex of this crisis, there is a genuine prospect that its effects will permanently alter their lives. Children facing acute deprivation in nutrition, protection or stimulation, or periods of prolonged exposure to toxic stress, during the critical window of early childhood development are likely to develop lifelong challenges as their neurological devel-opment is impaired. Children who drop out of school will face not only a higher risk of child marriage, child labour, and teenage pregnancies, but will see their lifetime earnings potential pre-cipitously fall. Children who experience family breakdowns during this period of heightened stress risk losing the sense of support and secu-rity on which children’s wellbeing depends.
Page 13 cites multiple, real world examples of the harm that happened to children as the result of the shutdowns during the Ebola epidemic. This includes substantial increases in the problems of childhood nutrition, lack of health care, lack of vaccinations, and lack of education.
Regarding the effects on vaccination during the Ebola epidemic, the report states:
The proportion of Liberian children under 1 who were fully immunized fell from 73 percent before the epidemic, to 36 percent during the epidemic, and recovered only partially to 53 percent by the end of 2015. Measles cases in Liberian children under 5 rose, likely due to the lapse in vaccination programs. The mean number of monthly cases of measles rose from 12 before the epidemic to 60 immediately afterwards.
I never would have guessed that the measures to deal with a new infectious disease would include reducing the vaccination rates for other, older infectious diseases.
In developing countries all over the world, the shutdown due to COVID-19 is causing huge harm, in multiple different ways, to a very large number of children. Some of these things will have permanent effects on these children for the rest of their lives.
Joanna Le Pluart: Here in Sweden we’re playing the long game, and listening to science not fear
I agree with this writer:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/sweden/articles/sweden-coronavirus-policy/
Here in Sweden we’re playing the long game, and listening to science not fear
By Joanna Le Pluart
April 19, 2020
For the first (and probably last) time in living memory, the whole world seems to care about the domestic policy of my plucky little home country. Sweden’s approach to dealing with coronavirus has been hailed by some, but the majority of commentators seem to think we’re conducting some kind of heartless and dangerous experiment. Even Donald Trump has attacked us.
For those that aren’t aware, while the rest of the world has been shutting down schools, shops and restaurants, banning non-essential travel, and sending the police to shout at those who dare to dawdle in their local park, Sweden remains largely open for business.
Our schools are full of students, and I can still visit restaurants in Malmo, where I’ve lived for more than 20 years. I’m working from home, but many offices remain open. I can have friends over for lunch. Should I want to, I could drive to the countryside for a weekend away.
Ministers here have been forced to defend the policy, and the armchair experts on social media track our daily deaths with disturbing relish, but I’m proud of my country’s stand. And, while some people I know would like to see stricter measures enforced, most of my friends here support it too.
For starters, while we’re still “open for business”, it’s certainly not a case of “business as usual”. Everyone who can is advised to work from home, and the government has issued social distancing and hygiene guidelines. We’ve been urged to avoid large gatherings and crowded public transport, and to maintain a safe distance when socialising. However, these remain “guidelines”. Rather than imposing authoritarian rules and stripping people of their freedoms, we are relying on people’s collective common sense.
And it appears to be working. While the high streets are open, they are much quieter than usual, and the majority are following the social distancing recommendations. For most Swedes, this isn’t much of an imposition. We are generally a self-reliant (some would say anti-social) bunch. In fact, many are rejoicing as they no longer have to make up an excuse to avoid going for a beer.
The architect of our policy (the hero or villain, depending on your point of view) is state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, and if the government trusts his advice – and that of the Folkhälsomyndigheten (Public Health Authority) – then that’s good enough for us. Here in Sweden, we trust our authorities. Corruption is rare, and our public agencies are politically independent. Why would the Public Health Agency give advice that is not in the best interests of people and society? They have no other agenda. Also, they’re disarmingly honest. Tegnell recently admitted: “We’re trying this strategy out. We don’t know if it will work or not. If it doesn’t, we’ll revisit it.” Indeed, no country knows which policy is best, or how exactly things will pan out, so why pretend otherwise?
It is also interesting to note that Sweden is one of the world’s least religious countries, with around 90 per cent being atheist or agnostic. Many here think it’s actually dangerous to believe in things for which there is no concrete evidence. This is reinforced by an education system that encourages independent enquiry and evidence-based reasoning. We see that there is no hard evidence that draconian lockdowns stop the spread, so we keep shops open. We see that there is no evidence of widespread transmission in outdoor environments, so socialising in parks is still permitted. Furthermore, coronavirus conspiracies haven’t had any traction over here – our 5G towers are still intact.
People say we are putting the economy ahead of saving lives, but the economy is lives. A stronger economy means better healthcare for everyone for years to come. Generally, Swedes like to play the long game and right now we’re thinking about the state of play two, five or even 10 years from now. It’s not just about beating the virus, it’s about coming out of the crisis healthy. It’s easy to tally up deaths from the disease, but what about the impact a lockdown will have in terms of unemployment, homelessness, mental illness, and suicides? One could even draw parallels with Sweden’s neutrality during the Second World War, which paved the way for the country to become an economic and social powerhouse in the post-war years.
Perhaps our most controversial policy has been to keep schools open. But shutting schools would mean key workers, including doctors and nurses, would have to stay at home (or else kids would need to be sent to their grandparents, a high-risk group). Also, Swedes are considering the negative long-term consequences on our kids if they miss a half year of school. Since they are unlikely to contract the virus, isn’t it better that they should carry on studying?
Not everyone in Sweden supports our coronavirus policy. Marie-Claude Dubois, an architect in Malmo, told me: “So far 1,300 people have died here, is this a price worth paying for children to go to school and for life to continue more or less as normal? How many more are we willing to sacrifice?”
But the opinions of teacher Sofie Lejdström are more typical. “Locking people up could have catastrophic consequences for people’s mental health, and we’ve seen already that quarantines do not stop people dying,” she said.
“I believe this policy will slow the spread of the virus and keep the hospitals from filling up all at once. But I don’t believe we can stop the virus. Controlled spreading to create herd immunity doesn’t sound bad to me. It sounds like the best option given there is no vaccine. I don’t believe that acting out of fear and spreading fear will ever lead to anything positive.”
Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus
This is a good thing. The infection rate is way higher than what had been thought, so the fatality rate is that much lower than what had been thought:
Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus
Mass. General researcher says the results point to a ‘raging epidemic,’ but may also indicate the city is further along the disease curve than some other municipalities
April 17, 2020
Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19, a startling indication of how widespread infections have been in the densely populated city.
Sixty-four residents who had a finger pricked in Bellingham Square on Tuesday and Wednesday had antibodies that the immune system makes to fight off the coronavirus, according to Massachusetts General Hospital physicians who ran the pilot study.
The 200 participants generally appeared healthy, but about half told the doctors they had had at least one symptom of COVID-19 in the past four weeks.
Public health experts already knew Chelsea had the state’s highest rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and that the actual rate was probably higher. At least 39 residents have died from the virus, and 712 had tested positive as of Tuesday, a rate of about 1,900 cases per 100,000 residents, or almost 2 percent.
But the Mass. General researchers ― who excluded anyone who had tested positive for the virus in the standard nasal swab test ― found that 32 percent of participants have had COVID-19, and many didn’t know it.
“I think it’s both good news and bad news,” said Dr. John Iafrate, vice chairman of MGH’s pathology department and the study’s principal investigator. “The bad news is that there’s a raging epidemic in Chelsea, and many people walking on the street don’t know that they’re carrying the virus and that they may be exposing uninfected individuals in their families.”
“On the good-news side, it suggests that Chelsea has made its way through a good part of the epidemic,” he said. “They’re probably further along than other towns.”
Scientists suspect that people who recover from COVID-19 may be at least temporarily immune from catching it again. Several biotechs and academic laboratories, in fact, are seeking blood donations from people who have recovered, in the hopes that their antibodies can help create a treatment or vaccine.
Chelsea’s city manager, Thomas Ambrosino, said he learned the results of the pilot study Thursday in a conference call with the researchers. He was dismayed, but not shocked.
“We’ve long thought that the reported numbers are vastly under-counting what the actual infection is,” said Ambrosino, who has called his city the epicenter of the crisis in Massachusetts. “Those reported numbers are based on positive COVID-19 tests, and we’re all aware that a very, very small percentage of people in Chelsea and everywhere are getting COVID-19 tests.”
“Still,” he added, “it’s kind of sobering that 30 percent of a random group of 200 people that are showing no symptoms are, in fact, infected. It’s all the more reason for everyone to be practicing physical distancing.”
Indeed, one of the doctors who tested volunteers in Bellingham Square said it’s possible that some of the people who had the antibodies are still contagious.
“Just because you have the antibodies doesn’t mean you’ve cleared the virus,” said Dr. Vivek Naranbhai, a clinical fellow in hematology and oncology.
Researchers said the test results, which had yet to be shared with state officials late Friday, couldn’t necessarily be extrapolated for the city’s roughly 40,000 residents. Still, the findings provided a valuable snapshot of a community that medical experts say is especially vulnerable to COVID-19.
Chelsea covers only about two square miles, across the Mystic River from Boston. For generations, it has attracted new immigrants, and about 65 percent of its residents are Latino. Many live in three-decker houses, Ambrosino said, where it’s hard for people to isolate themselves. Many work in the hospitality industry and health-related fields, where exposure to the virus is greater. And a lot of them must go to work during the pandemic.
To get Chelsea residents to participate in the study ― which included a questionnaire that was available in English, Spanish, and Portuguese — investigators allowed them to remain anonymous. But that meant none of the participants received the results of the blood tests.
The doctors used a diagnostic device made by BioMedomics, of Morrisville, N.C., to analyze drops of blood. It resembled an over-the-counter pregnancy test and generated results on the street in about 10 minutes. Although the test hasn’t won the approval of the Food and Drug Administration, Iafrate, the principal investigator, said Mass. General determined it’s reliable.
Within days, the physicians said, they hope to set up a medical tent outside the Mass. General Chelsea Healthcare Center to perform more antibodies tests with the device. The site will be located near a tent set up weeks ago to run standard PCR, or polymerase chain reaction, tests for people with active coronavirus symptoms. The latter uses nasal swabs to detect whether the virus is present at the time; the antibodies blood test reveals whether someone was infected in the past.
In addition to the new testing site, the researchers want to expand the study to other Massachusetts cities and towns. For all of those studies, Mass. General doctors plan to obtain the identities of participants so physicians can provide the results. But first the researchers need to come up with guidelines for what participants should do if they test positive for antibodies.
Dr. Dean Xerras, medical director of the Mass. General Chelsea Healthcare Center and a co-investigator in the study, said it illustrates why it’s essential for Chelsea and other communities to perform more tests, regardless of whether they detect antibodies or the virus itself.
“Knowing how many people are infected is critical,” said Xerras, a longtime member of the city’s board of health. “We need to get them isolated. We need to get masks delivered to the city. We need to launch more safe isolation sites. We need to be able to identify cases and then give people the things they need to prevent perpetuation of the spread.”
Chelsea and Revere officials, with help from the state Department of Public Health and the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, secured almost 150 rooms at a Quality Inn in Revere this week for residents who are recovering from COVID-19 and unable to isolate themselves at home, according to Ambrosino. So far, only a handful of those rooms are occupied.
Governor Charlie Baker on Thursday staunchly defended the state’s handling of the escalating outbreak in Chelsea, including asserting, without offering details, that city leaders have turned down help from his administration.
The governor’s claim surprised officials in Chelsea who told the Globe this week that the state, and even health care providers, should have recognized the virus’s rapid spread through the city sooner.
Denmark is opening its schools for children age 11 and younger. Whatever happens – good or bad – this should be a lesson for the rest of the world.
Denmark is opening its schools for children age 11 and younger.
The BBC just reported:
Coronavirus: Denmark lets young children return to school
Children up to the age of 11 are returning to nurseries and schools across Denmark
Whatever happens – good or bad – this should be a lesson for the rest of the world.
Washington Post: State Department cables warned of safety issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruses
State Department cables warned of safety issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruses
April 14, 2020
Two years before the novel coronavirus pandemic upended the world, U.S. Embassy officials visited a Chinese research facility in the city of Wuhan several times and sent two official warnings back to Washington about inadequate safety at the lab, which was conducting risky studies on coronaviruses from bats. The cables have fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus — even though conclusive proof has yet to emerge.
In January 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing took the unusual step of repeatedly sending U.S. science diplomats to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which had in 2015 become China’s first laboratory to achieve the highest level of international bioresearch safety (known as BSL-4). WIV issued a news release in English about the last of these visits, which occurred on March 27, 2018. The U.S. delegation was led by Jamison Fouss, the consul general in Wuhan, and Rick Switzer, the embassy’s counselor of environment, science, technology and health. Last week, WIV erased that statement from its website, though it remains archived on the Internet.
What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.
“During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,” states the Jan. 19, 2018, cable, which was drafted by two officials from the embassy’s environment, science and health sections who met with the WIV scientists. (The State Department declined to comment on this and other details of the story.)
The Chinese researchers at WIV were receiving assistance from the Galveston National Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch and other U.S. organizations, but the Chinese requested additional help. The cables argued that the United States should give the Wuhan lab further support, mainly because its research on bat coronaviruses was important but also dangerous.
As the cable noted, the U.S. visitors met with Shi Zhengli, the head of the research project, who had been publishing studies related to bat coronaviruses for many years. In November 2017, just before the U.S. officials’ visit,Shi’s team had published research showing that horseshoe bats they had collected from a cave in Yunnan province were very likely from the same bat population that spawned the SARS coronavirus in 2003.
“Most importantly,” the cable states, “the researchers also showed that various SARS-like coronaviruses can interact with ACE2, the human receptor identified for SARS-coronavirus. This finding strongly suggests that SARS-like coronaviruses from bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like diseases. From a public health perspective, this makes the continued surveillance of SARS-like coronaviruses in bats and study of the animal-human interface critical to future emerging coronavirus outbreak prediction and prevention.”
The research was designed to prevent the next SARS-like pandemic by anticipating how it might emerge. But even in 2015, other scientists questioned whether Shi’s team was taking unnecessary risks. In October 2014, the U.S. government had imposed a moratorium on funding of any research that makes a virus more deadly or contagious, known as “gain-of-function” experiments.
As many have pointed out, there is no evidence that the virus now plaguing the world was engineered; scientists largely agree it came from animals. But that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from the lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals, said Xiao Qiang, a research scientist at the School of Information at the University of California at Berkeley.
“The cable tells us that there have long been concerns about the possibility of the threat to public health that came from this lab’s research, if it was not being adequately conducted and protected,” he said.
There are similar concerns about the nearby Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab, which operates at biosecurity level 2, a level significantly less secure than the level-4 standard claimed by the Wuhan Insititute of Virology lab, Xiao said. That’s important because the Chinese government still refuses to answer basic questions about the origin of the novel coronavirus while suppressing any attempts to examine whether either lab was involved.
Sources familiar with the cables said they were meant to sound an alarm about the grave safety concerns at the WIV lab, especially regarding its work with bat coronaviruses. The embassy officials were calling for more U.S. attention to this lab and more support for it, to help it fix its problems.
“The cable was a warning shot,” one U.S. official said. “They were begging people to pay attention to what was going on.”
No extra assistance to the labs was provided by the U.S. government in response to these cables. The cables began to circulate again inside the administration over the past two months as officials debated whether the lab could be the origin of the pandemic and what the implications would be for the U.S. pandemic response and relations with China.
Inside the Trump administration, many national security officials have long suspected either the WIV or the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab was the source of the novel coronavirus outbreak. According to the New York Times, the intelligence community has provided no evidence to confirm this. But one senior administration official told me that the cables provide one more piece of evidence to support the possibility that the pandemic is the result of a lab accident in Wuhan.
“The idea that it was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side,” the official said.
As my colleague David Ignatius noted, the Chinese government’s original story — that the virus emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan — is shaky. Research by Chinese experts published in the Lancet in January showed the first known patient, identified on Dec. 1, had no connection to the market, nor did more than one-third of the cases in the first large cluster. Also, the market didn’t sell bats.
Shi and other WIV researchers have categorically denied this lab was the origin for the novel coronavirus. On Feb. 3, her team was the first to publicly report the virus known as 2019-nCoV was a bat-derived coronavirus.
The Chinese government, meanwhile, has put a total lockdown on information related to the virus origins. Beijing has yet to provide U.S. experts with samples of the novel coronavirus collected from the earliest cases. The Shanghai lab that published the novel coronavirus genome on Jan. 11 was quickly shut down by authorities for “rectification.” Several of the doctors and journalists who reported on the spread early on have disappeared.
On Feb. 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a new biosecurity law to be accelerated. On Wednesday, CNN reported the Chinese government has placed severe restrictions requiring approval before any research institution publishes anything on the origin of the novel coronavirus.
The origin story is not just about blame. It’s crucial to understanding how the novel coronavirus pandemic started because that informs how to prevent the next one. The Chinese government must be transparent and answer the questions about the Wuhan labs because they are vital to our scientific understanding of the virus, said Xiao.
We don’t know whether the novel coronavirus originated in the Wuhan lab, but the cable pointed to the danger there and increases the impetus to find out, he said.
“I don’t think it’s a conspiracy theory. I think it’s a legitimate question that needs to be investigated and answered,” he said. “To understand exactly how this originated is critical knowledge for preventing this from happening in the future.”
The Economist: “Covid-19 takes 20-25 days to kill victims. The paper reckons that 7m Americans were infected from March 8th to 14th, and official data show 7,000 deaths three weeks later. The resulting fatality rate is 0.1%, similar to that of flu.”
I think most people consider The Economist to be a fairly reliable source.
They looked at these numbers, and speculated that it’s possible (but not certain) that the real fatality rate might be 0.1%.
Here’s the relevant text, which The Economist reported on April 11, 2020:
Covid-19 takes 20-25 days to kill victims. The paper reckons that 7m Americans were infected from March 8th to 14th, and official data show 7,000 deaths three weeks later. The resulting fatality rate is 0.1%, similar to that of flu. That is amazingly low, just a tenth of some other estimates. Perhaps it is just wrong, possibly because the death toll has been under-reported. Perhaps, though, New York’s hospitals are overflowing because the virus is so contagious that it has crammed the equivalent of a year’s worth of flu cases into one week.
I don’t know if that’s accurate or not. And even they readily admit that they might be wrong.
Still, I do hope that it turns out to be true.
Here’s the full article:
Why a study showing that covid-19 is everywhere is good news
If millions of people were infected weeks ago without dying, the virus must be less deadly than official data suggest
April 11, 2020
ONE OF THE few things known for sure about covid-19 is that it has spread faster than official data imply. Most countries have tested sparingly, focusing on the sick. Just 0.1% of Americans and 0.2% of Italians have been tested and come up positive. In contrast, a study of the entire population of the Italian town of Vò found a rate of 3%.
The lack of testing has set off a hunt for proxies for covid-19 infection, from smart-thermometer readings to Google searches for “I can’t smell”. A new paper by Justin Silverman and Alex Washburne uses data on influenza-like illness (ILI) to show that SARS-CoV-2 is now widespread in America.
Every week, 2,600 American clinicians report the share of their patients who have ILI—a fever of at least 37.8°C (100°F) and a cough or sore throat, without a known non-flu reason. Unsurprisingly, ILI is often caused by flu. But many other ailments also produce ILI, such as common colds, strep throat and, now, covid-19. The authors assume that the share of these providers’ patients with ILI who do have the flu matches the rate of flu tests that are positive in the same state and week. This lets them estimate how many people have ILI seriously enough to call a doctor, but do not have the flu—and how many more people have had non-flu ILI in 2020 than in prior years.
They find that non-flu ILI has surged. Its rise has the same geographic pattern as covid-19 cases: modest in states with few positive tests, like Kentucky, and steep in ones with big outbreaks, such as New Jersey. In total, estimated non-flu ILI from March 8th to 28th exceeded a historical baseline by 23m cases—200 times the number of positive covid-19 tests in that period. This may overstate the spread of covid-19, since non-flu ILI has other causes. It could also be too low, because people with asymptomatic or mild covid-19 would not report non-flu ILI.
This sounds alarming, but should be reassuring. Covid-19 takes 20-25 days to kill victims. The paper reckons that 7m Americans were infected from March 8th to 14th, and official data show 7,000 deaths three weeks later. The resulting fatality rate is 0.1%, similar to that of flu. That is amazingly low, just a tenth of some other estimates. Perhaps it is just wrong, possibly because the death toll has been under-reported. Perhaps, though, New York’s hospitals are overflowing because the virus is so contagious that it has crammed the equivalent of a year’s worth of flu cases into one week.
Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/business/coronavirus-destroying-food.html
Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic
With restaurants, hotels and schools closed, many of the nation’s largest farms are destroying millions of pounds of fresh goods that they can no longer sell.
April 11, 2020
In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury 1 million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors are crisscrossing bean and cabbage fields, plowing perfectly ripe vegetables back into the soil.
After weeks of concern about shortages in grocery stores and mad scrambles to find the last box of pasta or toilet paper roll, many of the nation’s largest farms are struggling with another ghastly effect of the pandemic. They are being forced to destroy tens of millions of pounds of fresh food that they can no longer sell.
The closing of restaurants, hotels and schools has left some farmers with no buyers for more than half their crops. And even as retailers see spikes in food sales to Americans who are now eating nearly every meal at home, the increases are not enough to absorb all of the perishable food that was planted weeks ago and intended for schools and businesses.
The amount of waste is staggering. The nation’s largest dairy cooperative, Dairy Farmers of America, estimates that farmers are dumping as many as 3.7 million gallons of milk each day. A single chicken processor is smashing 750,000 unhatched eggs every week.
Many farmers say they have donated part of the surplus to food banks and Meals on Wheels programs, which have been overwhelmed with demand. But there is only so much perishable food that charities with limited numbers of refrigerators and volunteers can absorb.
And the costs of harvesting, processing and then transporting produce and milk to food banks or other areas of need would put further financial strain on farms that have seen half their paying customers disappear. Exporting much of the excess food is not feasible either, farmers say, because many international customers are also struggling through the pandemic and recent currency fluctuations make exports unprofitable.
“It’s heartbreaking,” said Paul Allen, co-owner of R.C. Hatton, who has had to destroy millions of pounds of beans and cabbage at his farms in South Florida and Georgia.
The widespread destruction of fresh food — at a time when many Americans are hurting financially and millions are suddenly out of work — is an especially dystopian turn of events, even by the standards of a global pandemic. It reflects the profound economic uncertainty wrought by the virus and how difficult it has been for huge sectors of the economy, like agriculture, to adjust to such a sudden change in how they must operate.
Even as Mr. Allen and other farmers have been plowing fresh vegetables into the soil, they have had to plant the same crop again, hoping the economy will have restarted by the time the next batch of vegetables is ready to harvest. But if the food service industry remains closed, then those crops, too, may have to be destroyed.
Farmers are also learning in real time about the nation’s consumption habits.
The quarantines have shown just how many more vegetables Americans eat when meals are prepared for them in restaurants than when they have to cook for themselves.
“People don’t make onion rings at home,” said Shay Myers, a third-generation onion farmer whose fields straddle the border of Oregon and Idaho.
Mr. Myers said there were no good solutions to the fresh food glut. After his largest customer — the restaurant industry — shut down in California and New York, his farm started redistributing onions from 50-pound sacks into smaller bags that could be sold in grocery stores. He also started freezing some onions, but he has limited cold-storage capacity.
With few other options, Mr. Myers has begun burying tens of thousands of pounds of onions and leaving them to decompose in trenches.
“There is no way to redistribute the quantities that we are talking about,” he said.
Over the decades, the nation’s food banks have tried to shift from offering mostly processed meals to serving fresh produce, as well. But the pandemic has caused a shortage of volunteers, making it more difficult to serve fruits and vegetables, which are time-consuming and expensive to transport.
“To purchase from a whole new set of farmers and suppliers — it takes time, it takes knowledge, you have to find the people, develop the contracts,” said Janet Poppendieck, an expert on poverty and food assistance.
The waste has become especially severe in the dairy industry, where cows need to be milked multiple times a day, regardless of whether there are buyers.
Major consumers of dairy, like public schools and coffee shops, have all but vanished, leaving milk processing plants with fewer customers at a time of year when cows produce milk at their fastest rate. About 5 percent of the country’s milk supply is currently being dumped and that amount is expected to double if the closings are extended over the next few months, according to the International Dairy Foods Association.
Before the pandemic, the Dairymens processing plant in Cleveland would produce three loads of milk, or around 13,500 gallons, for Starbucks every day. Now the Starbucks order is down to one load every three days.
For a while after the pandemic took hold, the plant collected twice as much milk from farmers as it could process, keeping the excess supply in refrigerated trailers, said Brian Funk, who works for Dairymens as a liaison to farmers.
But eventually the plant ran out of storage. One night last week, Mr. Funk worked until 11 p.m., fighting back tears as he called farmers who supply the plant to explain the predicament.
“We’re not going to pick your milk up tomorrow,” he told them. “We don’t have any place to put it.”
One of the farms that got the call was the Hartschuh Dairy Farm, which has nearly 200 cows on a plot of land in northern Ohio.
A week ago, Rose Hartschuh, who runs the farm with her family, watched her father-in-law flush 31,000 pounds of milk into a lagoon. It took more than an hour for the milk to flow out of its refrigerated tank and down the drain pipe.
For years, dairy farmers have struggled with low prices and bankruptcies. “This is one more blow below the belt,” Ms. Hartschuh said.
To prevent further dumping, farming groups are trying everything to find places to send the excess milk — even lobbying pizza chains to increase the amount of cheese on every slice.
But there are logistical obstacles that prevent dairy products from being shifted neatly from food service customers to retailers.
At many dairy processors, for example, the machinery is designed to package shredded cheese in large bags for restaurants or place milk in small cartons for schools, rather than arrange the products in retail-friendly containers.
To repurpose those plants to put cheese in the 8 oz. bags that sell in grocery stores or bottle milk in gallon jugs would require millions of dollars in investment. For now, some processors have concluded that spending the money isn’t worth it.
“It isn’t like restaurant demand has disappeared forever,” said Matt Gould, a dairy industry analyst. “Even if it were possible to re-format to make it an 8-ounce package rather than a 20-pound bag, the dollars and cents may not pan out.”
Those same logistical challenges are bedeviling poultry plants that were set up to distribute chicken to restaurants rather than stores. Each week, the chicken processor Sanderson Farms destroys 750,000 unhatched eggs, or 5.5 percent of its total production, sending them to a rendering plant to be turned into pet food.
Last week, the chief executive of Sanderson Farms, Joe Sanderson, told analysts that company officials had even considered euthanizing chickens to avoid selling them at unprofitable rates, though the company ultimately did not take that step.
In recent days, Sanderson Farms has donated some of its chicken to food banks and organizations that cook meals for emergency medical workers. But hatching hundreds of thousands of eggs for the purpose of charity is not a viable option, said Mike Cockrell, the company’s chief financial officer.
“We’re set up to sell that chicken,” Mr. Cockrell said. “That would be an expensive proposition.”
The most widespread testing so far shows that COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 0.004%. That’s lower than the flu. Should we start shutting everything down, every year, because of the flu? [Update: I was wrong to trust the Daily Mail. The real fatality rate is about 0.4%.]
Iceland has tested 10% of its population for COVID-19, by far the largest percentage of any country.
And it has discovered that the fatality rate is 0.004%.
That’s lower than the flu.
Should we start shutting everything down, every year, because of the flu?
Edited to add:
Iceland has 364,000 people.
10% of them were tested.
Of those tested, half tested positive.
Extrapolated to the entire country, 182,000 people have the virus.
7 of those people have died from the virus.
7 deaths out of 182,000 people having the virus = 0.004% fatality rate.
(7 / 182,000) * 100 = 0.004%.
Update: USA Today totally disagrees with The Daily Mail on the infection rate:
Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else. Here’s what it learned April 11, 2020 Iceland has achieved something no other country has: tested 10% of its population for coronavirus, a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world. Stefansson said Iceland’s randomized tests revealed that between 0.3%-0.8% of Iceland’s population is infected with the respiratory illness
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/10/coronavirus-covid-19-small-nations-iceland-big-data/2959797001/
So the real infection rate is about 100 times smaller than the 50% rate that was cited by the Daily Mail.
Which means that the real fatality rate is about 100 times bigger than the 0.004% rate that was cited by the Daily Mail. So the real fatality rate is about 0.4%.
My problem is that I trusted the Daily Mail.
Chicago Mayor Forced To Defend Getting A Haircut In Violation Of Her Own Stay-At-Home Order
Chicago Mayor Forced To Defend Getting A Haircut In Violation Of Her Own Stay-At-Home Order
April 7, 2020
Chicago’s mayor Lori Lightfoot is on the defensive Tuesday after a Chicago hair stylist revealed on social media that she’d given the mayor a haircut in violation of Lightfoot’s own stay-at-home orders.
Illinois was one of the first states to institute a full shelter-in-place program to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, and has been warning its residents to stay home at all costs unless they need necessary items like food or prescrition medication. The state had some of the first cases of coronavirus in the nation and, so far, around 11,000 Illinois residents are infected with the disease and 275 have died.
Lightfoot is, herself, the face of the Chicago stay-at-home order, appearing regularly on television to remind Chicagoans of the need to remain self-quarantined and her frequent lectures have earned her space on memes, where she stares down would-be fun-havers with her steely glare.
It has mostly been a positive time for Lightfoot — until Monday, that is, when her hair stylist posted a post-haircut photo with the mayor on social media. The stylist apparently visited Lightfoot at home and wore a mask and gloves to give Lightfoot a trim — something ordinary Chicagoans can’t get, given that barber shops and salons are shuttered until further notice.
Lightfoot was forced to defend her actions, according to the Chicago Tribune.
“Asked about photos on social media showing her with a stylist, Lightfoot acknowledged getting a haircut, then said the public cares more about other issues,” the Trib reported.
“I think what really people want to talk about is, we’re talking about people dying here. We’re talking about significant health disparities. I think that’s what people care most about,” she added.
Lightfoot contended that she was abiding by her own rules because the stylist came prepared: “The woman who cut my hair had a mask and gloves on so we are, I am practicing what I’m preaching,” she said during a press conference.
Asked what separated her from average Chicagoans who are forgoing beauty treatments in order to abide by regulations they’ve been told are saving lives, Lightfoot claimed that her status affords her some special privileges.
“I am the public face of this city. I’m on national media and I’m out in the public eye,” she said. “I take my personal hygiene very seriously. As I said, I felt like I needed to have a haircut. I’m not able to do that myself, so I got a haircut. You want to talk more about that?”
That last part didn’t sit well with some Chicagoans, who accused the mayor of abiding by one set of rules while mandating a second set of rules for less important residents. Indeed, just weeks ago, Lightfoot called the stay-at-home order a matter of life and death.
“Congregating on our lakefront, to be blunt, is going to create a risk that is unacceptable and could lead to death,” she said in a speech announcing that Chicago’s recreational areas, parks, and public beaches would be closed to traffic. “That is why we are taking these actions and going back and saying again: dear god, stay home, save lives.”
Irrational panic over COVID-19 causes hospitals to cancel elective surgeries and lay off huge numbers of health care workers
All over the country, irrational panic over COVID-19 is causing hospitals to cancel elective surgeries and lay off huge numbers of health care workers. Here are some news headlines about this:
Coronavirus financial losses prompt Boston Medical Center to furlough 700 employees, 10% of hospital’s workforce
https://www.kentucky.com/news/coronavirus/article241565211.html
Kentucky hospital chain furloughs about 500 employees as coronavirus saps business
https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-news/2020/04/a-mounting-casualty-crisis-health-care-jobs/
A mounting casualty crisis: Health care jobs
Four West Virginia hospitals lay off hundreds because of coronavirus-related shrinking revenues
Thousands of US medical workers furloughed, laid off as routine patient visits drop during coronavirus pandemic
I Can’t Get My Hip Surgery Because Of Coronavirus Even Though Nobody Is In Our Hospital
MUSC Health lays off 900 due to COVID-19 financial strain
Oklahoma City hospital closed amid coronavirus spread
So people who need hip replacements and other kinds of elective surgeries are being denied these procedures, and hospitals are laying off huge numbers of health care workers. This doesn’t make any sense to me.