I think the COVID-19 lockdown is killing more people than it is saving. Here are my many reasons for thinking such a thing. Updated for March 26, 2021.

By Daniel Alman (aka Dan from Squirrel Hill)

March 26, 2021

I think the COVIOD-19 lockdown is killing more people than it is saving.

I’m going to start out by posting the CDC’s estimated survival rates, by age, for people who contract COVID-19:


March 26, 2021. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . COVID-19, Health care, Math, Science. Leave a comment.

I think the COVID-19 lockdown is killing more people than it is saving. Here are my many reasons for thinking such a thing.

By Daniel Alman (aka Dan from Squirrel Hill)

September 24, 2020

I think the COVIOD-19 lockdown is killing more people than it is saving.

I’m going to start out by posting the CDC’s estimated survival rates, by age, for people who contract COVID-19:

Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20200923185857/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

0 to 19: 99.997%

20 to 49: 99.98%

50 to 69: 99.5%

70+: 94.6%

For most age groups, the survival rate is quite high. In my opinion, this does not justify a lockdown of the general population.

Now let’s take a look at my many reasons for thinking that the lockdown is killing more people than it is saving:

The National Cancer Institute estimates that there could be 10,000 additional breast and colorectal deaths over the next decade as a result of missed screenings and delayed diagnoses

Source: https://www.wjhg.com/2020/09/08/cancer-screenings-down-nationwide-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Cancer surgeries and organ transplants are being put off for coronavirus

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/op-ed-cancer-surgeries-and-organ-transplants-are-being-put-off-for-coronavirus.html

Higher rates of unemployment correlate very strongly with higher rates of suicide and drug overdoses

Source: https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/30/how-shutting-down-the-economy-much-longer-could-kill-tens-of-thousands-of-americans/

A report by the United Nations cites the predicted harm that will happen to tens of millions of children in low income countries as a result of the COVID-19 global wide shutdown.

Examples of this harm to children include increases in malnutrition, loss of education, increased rates of teen pregnancy, reduced access to health care, reduced rates of vaccination, increased rates of infectious disease, increased rates of water borne illness, and increased rates of death:

Source: https://unsdg.un.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/160420_Covid_Children_Policy_Brief.pdf

Anxiety from reactions to Covid-19 will destroy at least seven times more years of life than can be saved by lockdowns

Source: https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_anxiety_lockdowns_life_destroyed_saved

Childhood vaccine rates for preventable diseases like measles and whooping cough have fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the possibility of an additional health crisis.

In New York City… the number of vaccine doses administered from March 23 to May 9 fell 63 percent compared with the same period last year.

In children older than 2 years, it fell 91 percent…

… Doctors offices have been closed…

… The numbers in New York match a national trend…

… from mid-March to mid-April, doctors in the federally funded Vaccines for Children program for the uninsured ordered about 2.5 million fewer doses of all routine non-influenza vaccines and 250,000 fewer doses of measles-containing vaccines compared to the same period in 2019…

Source: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/498797-childhood-vaccine-rates-plummet-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-risking-new

Polio and measles could surge after disruption of vaccine programs. A new study of 129 countries found that the interruption of inoculation efforts could put 80 million babies at risk of getting deadly, preventable diseases.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/health/coronavirus-polio-measles-immunizations.html

Why most Covid-19 deaths won’t be from the virus

Source: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200528-why-most-covid-19-deaths-wont-be-from-the-virus

The global lockdown was put into place based on the bogus, false, and extremely inaccurate Imperial College model.

Sweden did not have a lockdown.

Experts, who cited the Imperial College model, predicted that Sweden would have 40,000 COVID-19 deaths by May 1.

The actual number was 2,769.

The same bogus Imperial College model was used to implement the lockdowns for the rest of the world.

Sources: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/sweden-suppressed-infection-rates-without-lockdown/


Nobel Prize-winning scientist: “the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor”

Source: https://www.theblaze.com/news/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-shares-covid-19-data-showing-strict-lockdowns-were-an-overreaction

This is a scientific paper called “Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.”

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1.full.pdf

Do lockdowns save many lives? In most places, the data say no.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

U.S. medical testing, cancer screenings plunge during coronavirus outbreak – data firm analysis

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-screenings-exc/exclusive-u-s-medical-testing-cancer-screenings-plunge-during-coronavirus-outbreak-data-firm-analysis-idUSKCN22A0DY

Some medical experts fear more people are dying from untreated emergencies than from the coronavirus

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/health/coronavirus-heart-stroke.html

How the COVID-19 lockdown will take its own toll on health

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cost-special-r/special-report-how-the-covid-19-lockdown-will-take-its-own-toll-on-health-idUSKBN21L20C

A study of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in New York showed that 66% of them were people who stayed home

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/05/06/majority-of-new-coronavirus-cases-in-new-york-are-from-people-staying-at-home-not-traveling-or-working

End all restrictions, they were unnecessary, Hebrew University researchers say

Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/end-all-restrictions-they-were-unnecessary-hebrew-university-researchers-say/

A scientific paper states:

Background: The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has forced governments to implement strict social mitigation strategies to reduce the morbidity and mortality from acute infections. These strategies however carry a significant risk for mental health which can lead to increased short-term and long-term mortality and is currently not included in modelling the impact of the pandemic. Methods: We used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure as applied to Switzerland as an exemplar. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status and social isolation as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We stipulated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans. Results: The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer an average 9.79 YLL. Conclusions: The results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, they highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069716v3

In the U.S., the lockdown caused 1.4 million health care workers to be laid off:

Source: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/496816-health-care-industry-decimated-by-coronavirus-loses-14-million-jobs

Take the Shutdown Skeptics Seriously

Americans should carefully consider the potential costs of prolonged shutdowns lest they cause more deaths or harm to the vulnerable than they spare…

… minimizing the number of COVID-19 deaths today or a month from now or six months from now may or may not minimize the human costs of the pandemic when the full spectrum of human consequences is considered…

… the warnings of thoughtful shutdown skeptics warrant careful study…

Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/take-shutdown-skeptics-seriously/611419/

Cyril H. Wecht, one of the country’s most well regarded doctors, made this excellent argument against the lockdown

Source: https://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2020/05/14/Cyril-H-Wecht-Time-to-end-the-COVID-19-hysteria/stories/202005140031

Stanford University doctor: ‘You are mistaken’ if you think coronavirus lockdowns provide safety”

Source: https://www.theblaze.com/news/stanford-university-doctor-mistaken-coronavirus-lockdowns

Relapses are through the roof, overdoses are through the roof: How the pandemic is upping substance abuse

… They can’t go to a 12-step based meeting…

… People are self-medicating due to the quarantine. And they’re drinking more, and abusing more, and relapses are through the roof right now.

Source: https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/19/relapses-are-through-the-roof-overdoses-are-through-the-roof-how-the-pandemic-is-upping-substance-abuse/

Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model “could go down in history as the most devastating software mistake of all time, in terms of economic costs and lives lost”

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/

Rise in female genital mutilation in Somalia linked to coronavirus shutdown

Somali girls out of school and stuck at home have been subject to a “massive rise” in female genital mutilation…

“It’s a lifetime torture for girls. The pain continues … until the girl goes to the grave. It impacts her education, ambition … everything.”

… the UNFPA has warned that globally 2 million more girls could be cut over the next decade because of how the global pandemic has disrupted efforts to end the practice.

Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20200519232914/https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/19/coronavirus-update-us/

More than 500 doctors signed this letter, which is says, “In medical terms, the shutdown was a mass casualty incident.”

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/462319362/A-Doctor-a-Day-Letter-Signed#fullscreen&from_embed

Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, head of the trauma department at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, California, said, “… we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks…”

Source: https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/

Rampant unemployment, isolation and an uncertain future – could lead to 75,000 deaths from drug or alcohol abuse and suicide

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-deaths-suicides-drugs-alcohol-pandemic-75000/

In the U.S., the first nine weeks of the lockdown caused 38 million people to lose their jobs

Source: https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/21/another-2-4-million-americans-filed-for-unemployment-last-week-38-million-since-march/

The fatality rate of COVID-19 “would probably be 0.13 percent for people outside nursing homes”

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/tell-me-what-to-do-please-even-experts-struggle-with-coronavirus-unknowns/2020/05/25/e11f9870-9d08-11ea-ad09-8da7ec214672_story.html

A scientific study said, “Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%)”

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1.full.pdf

New England Journal of Medicine: “We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection”

Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

Knut Wittkowski, former head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science, said the lockdown “most likely made the situation worse”

Source: https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/15/we-could-open-up-again-and-forget-the-whole-thing/

Denmark, Finland say they saw no increase in coronavirus after schools re-opened

Source: https://justthenews.com/world/europe/denmark-finland-say-they-saw-no-increase-coronavirus-after-schools-re-opened

Kanchan Soni, who lived in India, died because the lockdown prevented her from getting dialysis

Source: https://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/delhi/2020/apr/16/dialysis-patient-denied-treatment-dies-2130804.html

Chewing gum, wire-cutters, and superglue: the alarming rise of DIY Dentistry under coronavirus

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/chewing-gum-wire-cutters-superglue-alarming-rise-diy-dentistry/

A scientific paper on the lockdown states, “In high burden settings, HIV, TB and malaria related deaths over 5 years may be increased by up to 10%, 20% and 36%, respectively”

Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-01-COVID19-Report-19.pdf

Polio and measles could surge after disruption of vaccine programs. A new study of 129 countries found that the interruption of inoculation efforts could put 80 million babies at risk of getting deadly, preventable diseases.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/health/coronavirus-polio-measles-immunizations.html

World Health Organization: “If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19”

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-offer-conflicting-advice-masks-expert-tells-us/story?id=70958380

Reopening schools in Denmark did not worsen outbreak, data shows

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening-idUSKBN2341N7

One month later: top Israeli mathematician predicted COVID-19 peaks after 40 days with or without economic lockdowns – and he was right!

Source: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/one-month-later-top-israeli-mathematician-predicted-covid-19-peaks-40-days-without-economic-lockdowns-right/

Dr. Kelly Fradin: “I’m a pediatrician and I think we should reopen schools, even with the risk of coronavirus outbreaks”

Source: https://www.insider.com/pediatrician-reopen-schools-even-if-it-leads-coronavirus-outbreaks-2020-6

This video shows Dr. Anthony Fauci removing his mask when he thought he was no longer being filmed


Slowing the coronavirus is speeding the spread of other diseases. Many mass immunization efforts worldwide were halted this spring to prevent spread of the virus at crowded inoculation sites. The consequences have been alarming… cargo flights with vaccine supplies were halted… Now, diphtheria is appearing in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. Cholera is in South Sudan, Cameroon, Mozambique, Yemen and Bangladesh. A mutated strain of poliovirus has been reported in more than 30 countries. And measles is flaring around the globe, including in Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Nigeria and Uzbekistan.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-measles.html

Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid

Source: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

Antibody tests point to lower death rate for the coronavirus than first thought

Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.

Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought

Coronavirus pandemic could push 122 million to brink of starvation: Oxfam

Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/7155931/coronavirus-starvation-oxfam/

Dr. Dan Wohlgelernter said, “What we needed to do was not lock down all of society. Not shut down schools. Not shut down all businesses. You needed to protect the elderly. Particularly the elderly in the nursing homes. It’s a small segment of our population. We could have allowed the rest of the population to continue with their lives, take adequate precautions but not be completely shut down. The cost of the shut down in terms of the physical, emotional, and psychological health of people is enormous. We’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg of people who have been shut-in. Who’ve lost their businesses. Who are facing depression. Who are facing issues of mental health because of the consequences. This should never happen again. If we ever face this situation again we need to learn the lessons from the mistakes and policies that were implemented.”

Source: https://theohiostar.com/2020/07/01/doctors-break-down-covid-response-and-the-demonization-of-hcq-doctors-tell-all/

People are more likely to contract COVID-19 at home, study finds

Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-more-likely-contract-covid-122611396.html

No known case of teacher catching coronavirus from pupils, says scientist. There has been no recorded case of a teacher catching the coronavirus from a pupil anywhere in the world, according to one of the government’s leading scientific advisers. Mark Woolhouse, a leading epidemiologist and member of the government’s Sage committee, told The Times that it may have been a mistake to close schools in March given the limited role children play in spreading the virus.

Source: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-known-case-of-teacher-catching-coronavirus-from-pupils-says-scientist-3zk5g2x6z

Coronavirus lockdown ‘made no difference to number of deaths’, study claims

Source: https://www.the-sun.com/news/1190721/coronavirus-lockdown-no-difference/

Stop stealing our children’s youth in the name of their grandparents. Every person I know in his 70s says kids should go back to school. Behind ensuring Americans have food, ensuring our children are well educated is a very close second in societal priorities.

Source: https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/17/stop-stealing-our-childrens-youth-in-the-name-of-their-grandparents/

Citing educational risks, scientific panel urges that schools reopen

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/health/coronavirus-schools-reopening.html

Stanford doctor Scott Atlas says the science shows kids should go back to school

Source: https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/15/stanford-doctor-scott-atlas-says-the-science-shows-kids-should-go-back-to-school/

German study finds no evidence coronavirus spreads in schools

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/13/german-study-finds-no-evidence-coronavirus-spreads-schools/

As of September 2020, Sweden, which never had a lockdown, or a mask mandate, had a lower total, cumulative per capita COVID-19 death rate than the U.S.

Sources: https://web.archive.org/web/20200907000001/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/




Now this last one is just speculation, as I do not have proof. But I do think it is worth mentioning.

At least since March 2020, and perhaps even earlier, Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, from New York, has been claiming to have successfully treated COVID-19 patients with a triple combination of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin.

Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment is different than other treatments (which have been debunked) because of these two things:

First, Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment involves a triple combination of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin.

And secondly, Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment must be given before the patient has become so sick that they need hospitalization.

Other treatments with hydroxychloroquine have been debunked. But those other treatments do not meet the two above criteria.

I don’t know if Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment actually works or not. But I have not seen it debunked.

On July 3, 2020, preprints.org reported the following on Dr. Zelenko’s alleged treatment:

COVID-19 Outpatients – Early Risk-Stratified Treatment with Zinc Plus Low Dose Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin: A Retrospective Case Series Study

Of 335 positively PCR-tested COVID-19 patients, 127 were treated with the triple therapy. 104 of 127 met the defined risk stratification criteria and were included in the analysis. In addition, 37 treated and eligible patients who were confirmed by IgG tests were included in the treatment group (total N=141). 208 of the 335 patients did not meet the risk stratification criteria and were not treated. After 4 days (median, IQR 3-6, available for N=66/141) of onset of symptoms, 141 patients (median age 58 years, IQR 40-60; 73% male) got a prescription for the triple therapy for 5 days. Independent public reference data from 377 confirmed COVID-19 patients of the same community were used as untreated control. 4 of 141 treated patients (2.8%) were hospitalized, which was significantly less (p<0.001) compared with 58 of 377 untreated patients (15.4%) (odds ratio 0.16, 95% CI 0.06-0.5). Therefore, the odds of hospitalization of treated patients were 84% less than in the untreated group. One patient (0.7%) died in the treatment group versus 13 patients (3.5%) in the untreated group (odds ratio 0.2, 95% CI 0.03-1.5; p=0.16). There were no cardiac side effects. Conclusions: Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset with the used triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly less hospitalizations and 5 times less all-cause deaths.

Source: https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202007.0025/v1


September 24, 2020. Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . COVID-19, Health care, Math, Science. 1 comment.